Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in the Erer Sub-Basin Wabi-Shebelle River Basin, Ethiopia
Abstract
Rapid land use and land cover (LULC) change threatens ecosystem sustainability, yet its future patterns and dynamics remain insufficiently understood in developing countries like Ethiopia. The study aimed to evaluate the historical LULC changes and predict its future changes in the northeast of the Wabi-Shebelle River Basin (WSRB), Ethiopia. We used the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms in ArcGIS Pro to classify LULC classes from multi-sensor Landsat imagery (MSS, ETM+, OLI). The Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model and Land Change Modeler (LCM) in TerrSet with Idrisi software were used to predict future LULC changes. Between 1985 and 2022, water bodies, forests, and shrub lands decreased by 84.1%, 47.4%, and 22.6%, respectively, whereas built-up, agricultural, and barren lands increased by 2862.4%, 44.6%, and 75.5%, respectively. By 2062, under the business-as-usual scenario, water bodies, forests, and shrub lands are projected to decline by 80.1%, 40.1%, and 19.8%, respectively, while developed, agricultural, and barren lands are expected to increase by 566.3%, 18.5%, and 4.9%, respectively. The SVM and CA–Markov models effectively classified historical LULC and simulated future changes. Although LULC conversion is projected to continue, its rate is expected to slow as much of the highly suitable land, particularly in the upper region, has already been converted. Sustainable land management and targeted conservation measures should be prioritized to limit further LULC conversion and protect the remaining natural ecosystems, particularly in the upper region.
Similar Articles
- Birhanu Legesse Wakjira, Asfaw Kebede Kassa, Awdenegest Moges, Olkeba Tolessa Leta, Integrated Assessment of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics and Climate Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology in the Dawe Watershed, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026)
- Alemayehu Wubie, Zenebe Tadesse, Genanew Tesfaye, Aschalew Lakew, Fish Distribution and Abundance in the Upper Awash River, West Shewa, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 5 No. 2 (2017)
- Henok Sirna, Birhanu Kebede, Fedhasa Benti, Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on the Ecosystem Services in Guder River Sub-Basin, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024)
- L. E. Attah, Melkamu Biyana, GC-MS Determination of Pesticide Residues in Effluent Run-off, River and Adjacent Soil around a Floriculture Industry in Holetta Town, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2013)
- Haji Kedir, Yohannes Gebremichael, Solomon Tekalign, Assessment of Water Supply Systems in Karrayu Pastoral Area, Oromiya Region, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 3 No. 1 (2015)
- Samuel Leykun, “Irreecha” Ceremony among Shoa Oromo , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 2 No. 1 (2014)
- Lemma Fita, M.M.Trivedi, Ulfina Galmessa, Constraints of Farmers in Adopting Improved Dairy Husbandry Practices: The Case of Ada’a District, Oromiya State, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 1 No. 1 (2013)
- Hadush Gebretsadik , Firew Mekbib, Eyasu Abraha, Influence of Cytokinin and Auxin Types and Concentrations on In Vitro Shoot and Root Regeneration of Cactus Pear [(Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.] , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 1 No. 1 (2013)
- Tariku Tesfaye, Mulugeta Negeri, Mohammed Dawd, Efficacy of Insect Growth Regulators against Red Tef Worm, Mentaxya ignicollis (Walker) (Lepdoptera: Noctuidae) , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2013)
- Chala Merera, Ulfina Galmessa, Abebe Olk, Lemma Fita, Solomon Abegaz, Short Note on Dairy Technology Transfer and Community Services: The case of Provision of Improved Dairy Technologies for Low Income Women around Ambo Town , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2013)
You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- Birhanu Legesse Wakjira, Asfaw Kebede Kassa, Awdenegest Moges, Olkeba Tolessa Leta, Integrated Assessment of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics and Climate Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology in the Dawe Watershed, Ethiopia , Journal of Science and Sustainable Development: Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026)